10640 Deergrass Ln

Williamsburg, FL 32821

$299,900C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$107
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-107/mo
• Annual: $-1,286/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $890 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in FL, #608 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunshine Elementary (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 949 students, 41% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Lake Buena Vista High School (1,714 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $300k implies a 713% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.