10640 Deergrass Ln · Williamsburg, FL 32821

$299,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 139 Days on market

Built 1978 7,000 sqft lot Est $372k · 19% under $107/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks

Here is your opportunity to get into a Williamsburg home at a great price. This is one of the few 2 bed 2 bath home with a 2 car garage. This is one of the original Miller homes that started the village. Home will need some updating but has great potential to be a wonderful starter or retirement home. Rear porch has been updated with windows and tile floor with newer windows in the front of the home and a large open front paved porch. This is also a possible flip for you flippers looking to do a complete rehab.

Key facts

• Updated windows
• Rear porch
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• REAR PORCH
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• LARGE OPEN FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed; Directions available
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee of $107; HOA includes pool and recreational facilities; Community clubhouse, tennis courts, deed restrictions, vehicle restrictions, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking; Association requires membership; association contact listed as office manager

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry faces east; Planned unit development
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Tile roof; Slab foundation; Built with living area reported (public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Located on a cul-de-sac; Level lot; Paved, public-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Aluminum window frames
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in FL, #608 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities D.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunshine Elementary (math 41% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 949 students, 41% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Lake Buena Vista High School (1,714 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $890 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $300k implies a 713% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,619 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,006
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5772 Arnold Zlotoff Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,645 (+10%)	8mo	$363,000	$221	54
4901 Lindsay Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,576 (+6%)	11mo	$415,000	$263	53
5760 Arnold Zlotoff Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+8%)	12mo	$400,000	$249	53
4807 Loretta Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,515 (+1%)	16mo	$390,000	$257	52
11231 Scenic View Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,414 (-5%)	5mo	$390,000	$276	52
10131 Allenby Ct	0.56mi	2/2.0	1,312 (-12%)	10mo	$325,000	$248	46
5507 Memorial Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,554 (+4%)	20mo	$361,800	$233	45
10301 LA Guardia Ct	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,540 (+3%)	22mo	$383,500	$249	44
5648 Parkview Lake Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,314 (-12%)	20mo	$370,000	$282	43
10108 Matchlock Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+12%)	12mo	$345,000	$205	41
5837 Plumtree Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,615 (+8%)	24mo	$395,000	$245	32
5715 Parkview Lake Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (+13%)	20mo	$412,500	$245	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.3% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,154
• Equity at exit: $91,559

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-6,589
• Equity at exit: $113,697

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32821

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,286 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$107
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,422

Max offer price $280,967

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-22	+0% $-107	+5% $-192	+10% $-277
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-197	+0% $-107	+5% $-17	+10% $73
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-31	base $-107	+0.5pp $-185	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10606 Whitman Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$2,500	$1.99	4d	1	0.24mi
5523 Westbrook Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$2,150	$1.35	26d	1	0.27mi
10508 Montpelier Cir Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$2,600	$2.05	20d	1	0.33mi
5033 Loyola Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1873	$2,350	$1.25	24d	1	0.35mi
5673 Parkview Lake Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,850	$1.67	9d	1	0.48mi
4825 Loretta Ln Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$2,500	$2.34	16d	1	0.57mi
5556 Memorial Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1070	$1,275	$1.19	15d	1	0.59mi
10010 Gannon Ln Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1312	$2,600	$1.98	20d	1	0.63mi
4905 Goucher Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1576	$2,600	$1.65	24d	1	0.72mi
11805 Scarecrow Ln Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1302	$2,200	$1.69	26d	1	0.98mi
4126 Breakview Dr #30401 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,600	$1.80	26d	1	1.03mi
6000 Paradiso Grande Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1305	$2,836	$2.17	9d	21	1.09mi
4410 Bar Harbor Dr Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	957	$2,250	$2.35	26d	1	1.19mi
4801 Tidecrest Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	1600	$2,050	$1.28	5d	1	1.25mi
8000 Cool Breeze Dr #105 Orlando, FL	3.0	3.5	1746	$2,399	$1.37	26d	1	1.34mi
5716 Delano Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,580	$2.12	9d	1	1.36mi
10107 Ancora Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,074	$2.05	0d	27	1.37mi
9707 Mia Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,244	$2.21	0d	35	1.43mi
9703 Avellino Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$2,373	$2.45	0d	43	1.48mi
6701 Westwood Blvd Orlando, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	735	$1,699	$2.31	5d	6	1.48mi
10149 Arise Loop Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,791	$2.75	0d	85	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $107 · $1,284/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $339,900 Active
17. 1978-12-01
    soldstatus $36,900
18. 1978-07-01
    soldstatus $30,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,186/yr (+$99/mo · 91.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,434
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,195
• − Management: −$2,195
• − HOA: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,576
• After-tax cash flow: $290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #608

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living B Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,161
• Household income: $69,348
• Rent vs Own: 68.3% rent · 31.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1840.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 11% Cuban 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Estonian 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.30%
• Current HPI: 300.2268
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.20%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1025.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $339,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,900 Public Records
• 1978-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.