229 Bear Run Ln

Roxboro, NC 27574

$799,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1996 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$669
• HOA: −$88
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-998/mo
• Annual: $-11,970/yr
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-998 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $623k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (37.4% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $500k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $85k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $799k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$137k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?