229 Bear Run Ln · Roxboro, NC 27574

$799,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1996 0.65 ac lot Est $829k · at est. $88/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

Key facts

• One level house
• Good water depth
• Paved roads

Tags

• ONE LEVEL HOUSE
• GENTLE SLOPING LOT
• GOOD WATER DEPTH
• PAVED ROADS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.65 acres
• HOA & community: Part of Blue Heron HOA; annual association fee of $900; Additional association (Person Caswell Lake Auth) with an annual fee of $160; Association fees include road maintenance

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Site-built single-story home; One level
• Construction: Stone and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Private road with road maintenance agreement

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-998 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $623k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (37.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $500k (37.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#649 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Person County Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #110 of 178 in NC (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Person High (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 1,079 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: 128 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 113 units permitted in Person County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $85k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Person County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$137k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $360k; list at $799k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $500,000 (37.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.35%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $829,312
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
153 Little Duck Ln	0.51mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,208 (-11%)	9mo	$735,000	$608	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $371,347
• Equity at exit: $719,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $1,142,965
• Equity at exit: $1,552,281

Cash invested: $223,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27574

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 128
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,039/yr
• Insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-998

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,263

Max offer price $622,785

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $199,750
• Closing costs: $23,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Duke Ln Roxboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1600	$5,000	$3.12	21d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $799,000 Active
2. 2015-08-06
   soldstatus $360,000 Closed 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

3. 2015-08-06
   soldstatus $360,000 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

4. 2015-08-06
   soldstatus $360,000

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

5. 2015-07-12
   historical Contingent 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

6. 2015-06-15
   price $379,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

7. 2015-04-23
   listed $399,900 Active 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

8. 2015-04-23
   listed $379,900 445-char remark

   Show marketing remark (445 chars)

   Beautiful 4 bed/2 bath home on gently sloping lot (no stairs to lake) with 2 covered porches and breathtaking views of Hyco Lake. 1600 sq ft double slip boathouse with approximately 8-10 ft water depth, kitchen/bar and area for entertaining. In the home, newly renovated bathrooms, new carpet & hardwoods in kitchen and living rooms. Eat in kitchen has breakfast bar, granite counters, stainless steel fridge, dishwasher & microwave.

9. 2006-06-01
   soldstatus $443,500
10. 1990-06-28
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,039 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,552 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,513/yr (+$209/mo · 62.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,756
• − Property taxes: −$4,039
• − Insurance: −$3,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,800
• − Management: −$4,800
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$23,244
• Taxable loss: −$26,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,406
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Person County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703630
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,729
• Composite: 34.3/100
• National rank: #5242
• State rank: #110 of 178 in NC

Livability — Roxboro

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #23536

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,954
• Population (ZIP): 14,163

Population outlook (Person County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,577 people
• By 2030: 37,847 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,740 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 32,683 · -15.3%
• By 2075: 24,979 · -35.2%
• By 2100: 15,779 · -59.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 28% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Person

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.7) · D 37.7% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.5pp · 2024: -23.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.7 2020: R+21.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+8.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.68%
• Current HPI: 276.8767
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1758.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $799,000 TMLS
• 2015-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records
• 2015-08-06 Sold (MLS) $360,000 AMLSNC
• 2015-08-06 Sold (MLS) $360,000 TMLS
• 2015-07-12 Contingent — TMLS
• 2015-06-15 Price Changed $379,900 TMLS
• 2015-04-23 Listed $399,900 TMLS
• 2015-04-23 Listed $379,900 AMLSNC
• 2006-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $443,500 Public Records
• 1990-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,039 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.