1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
630 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Condo
· Active
· 66 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,041/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$278
Tax + insurance
−$63
HOA
−$256
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$219
Net cashflow
$225/mo
Annual
$2,704/yr
Cap rate
11.39%
Cash-on-cash
18.22%
DSCR
1.81
1% rule
1.96%
Cash to close
$14,840
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $53k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $50k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#395 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Combs Elementary (math 7% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,016 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 295 students, 99% FRL); Cross Keys Middle (math 5% / reading 10%, grade F, #379 of 391 statewide, top 97%, 625 students, 100% FRL); Mccluer North High (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #487 of 521 statewide, top 93%, 1,136 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $25k; list at $53k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 7.3% in Hazelwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29