70 Lyon Pl

Lynbrook, NY 11563

$599,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,586/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$428
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $-736/mo
• Annual: $-8,837/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $469k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (40.1% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $359k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#10 in NY, #221 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Lynbrook Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #72 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West End School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 401 students, 0% FRL); Lynbrook North Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 266 students, 15% FRL); Lynbrook Senior High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 850 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $599k implies a 605% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Lynbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.