70 Lyon Pl · Lynbrook, NY 11563

$599,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,221 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1930 4,800 sqft lot $491/sqft · 24% below area Est $790k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and cozy 3br brick cape in the heart of Lynbrook. Features include a warm and inviting Living room with wood-burning fireplace, formal dining room, expanded eat in kitchen with vaulted ceilings and a door leading to the private backyard. The main floor offers a convenient bedroom and full bath with jacuzzi tub while the Second floor has 2 additional bedrooms and unfinished section for ample storage. Full basement has lots of possibilities for recreation or family room. There are beautiful oak floors on the main level and under the carpet on the second level. Oil heat with the tank in the basement. A gas connection already in the home makes for an easy conversion. Steps to the LIRR

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Gas connection
• Full basement

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• EXPANDED EAT IN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• OAK FLOORS
• GAS CONNECTION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with 1 car space; No carport
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Natural gas connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area recorded in public records
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; Steam heat; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Full unfinished basement; Dormer attic
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-736 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $469k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $359k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $359k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Lynbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#10 in NY, #221 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Lynbrook Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #72 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: West End School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 401 students, 0% FRL); Lynbrook North Middle School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #214 of 729 statewide, top 31%, 266 students, 15% FRL); Lynbrook Senior High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 850 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($137k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($581k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $599k implies a 605% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $358,604 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.87%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $789,605
• List price: $599,000
• Delta: -24.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 Putnam Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,256 (+3%)	1mo	$575,000	$458	86
251 Forest Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-3%)	1mo	$740,000	$623	66
11 Wood St	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-4%)	4mo	$550,000	$468	64
21 Washington Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+0%)	1mo	$640,000	$523	61
16 Farnum St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,252 (+2%)	3mo	$830,000	$663	61
21 Oceanview Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,174 (-4%)	0mo	$675,000	$575	60
189 Surrey	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,161 (-5%)	3mo	$601,500	$518	60
40 Hendrickson Ave	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,250 (+2%)	1mo	$770,000	$616	58
75 Denton Ave	0.61mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,299 (+6%)	1mo	$710,000	$547	55
19 Everett St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,364 (+12%)	0mo	$515,000	$378	50
58 Chestnut St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,324 (+8%)	2mo	$650,000	$491	47
86 Taft Ave	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,400 (+15%)	0mo	$895,000	$639	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-144,260
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-187,214
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11563

• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,586 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,476/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$753
• Net cashflow: $-736

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,518

Max offer price $468,916

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-567	+0% $-736	+5% $-906	+10% $-1,075
Rent	-10% $-1,020	-5% $-878	+0% $-736	+5% $-595	+10% $-453
Rate	-1.0pp $-435	-0.5pp $-584	base $-736	+0.5pp $-892	+1.0pp $-1,049

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Endview Ave Lynbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,650	$3.02	45d	1	0.07mi
2 Fowler Ave Unit 211 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,750	$2.88	26d	1	0.20mi
112 Atlantic Ave Apt 71 Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	760	$3,000	$3.95	14d	1	0.34mi
24 Doxsey Pl Unit 3 Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$3,300	$3.67	26d	1	0.40mi
23 Thompson Pl Unit 2 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$3,100	$3.44	20d	1	0.44mi
576 Scranton Ave Unit 576-4 Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1212	$3,750	$3.09	45d	1	0.52mi
68 Shipherd Ave Apt 2 Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,650	$2.21	26d	1	0.62mi
27 Park Pl Unit 2 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$3,600	$3.60	45d	1	0.66mi
92 Wavecrest St Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,800	$2.33	25d	1	0.72mi
65 Prospect Ave Apt 15W Lynbrook, NY	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,680	$3.47	23d	1	0.77mi
44 Jefferson Ave Unit Second Floor Lynbrook, NY	2.0	1.0	1452	$2,850	$1.96	45d	1	0.80mi
1 Allen St Unit 1 Lynbrook, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	18d	1	0.92mi
441 Atlantic Ave Unit 2 East Rockaway, NY	3.0	1.0	1150	$3,500	$3.04	45d	1	1.00mi
100 E Valley Stream Blvd Valley Stream, NY	3.0	2.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	0d	1	1.04mi
127 Gordon Rd Valley Stream, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$3,350	$2.79	45d	1	1.09mi
125 S Cottage St Valley Stream, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$4,285	$3.75	0d	7	1.11mi
70 S Cottage St Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.5	1290	$4,000	$3.10	0d	1	1.13mi
35 Gibson Blvd Unit 2 Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	1150	$3,900	$3.39	0d	1	1.32mi
80 N Centre Ave Rockville Centre, NY	3.0	1.0–3.5	1254	$5,935	$4.73	0d	1	1.37mi
111 S Centre Ave Apt 1SS Rockville Centre, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$3,250	$3.42	6d	1	1.41mi
50 Roosevelt Ave Unit A301 Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.0	767	$3,550	$4.63	0d	1	1.41mi
225 Marina Pointe Dr Unit 225 Oceanside, NY	2.0	2.0	1337	$4,200	$3.14	11d	1	1.43mi
510 Dubois Ave Apt 3C Valley Stream, NY	2.0	1.5	1050	$3,400	$3.24	45d	1	1.46mi
19 Dartmouth St Valley Stream, NY	3.0	3.5	1439	$4,600	$3.20	0d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $599,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $599,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $599,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $599,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $599,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $599,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-02-21
    listed $649,000 Active 756-char remark
13. 1984-07-01
    soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,800 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,324/yr (+$360/mo · 292.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,032
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$1,476
• − Insurance: −$3,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,443
• − Management: −$3,443
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$19,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,793
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynbrook Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3617910
• Math proficiency: 75% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $93,436
• Composite: 66.85/100
• National rank: #404
• State rank: #72 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lynbrook

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #221

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynbrook, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 22,899
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,899
• Household income: $136,887
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 618.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Asian 7% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -652.00%
• Current HPI: 317.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+604.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-8.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,476 · -75.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.