2522 Lake Ellen Ln

Carrollwood, FL 33618

$299,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,637 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,506/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-3/mo
• Annual: $-35/yr
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-35/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.