2522 Lake Ellen Ln · Carrollwood, FL 33618

$299,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,637 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1956 0.43 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AMAZING POOL HOME ON A GREAT LOT IN A WONDERFUL LOCATION, AND A TERRIFIC VALUE! THIS HOME HAS BEEN TOTALLY REMODELED. 2 MASTER BEDROOMS WITH EXQUISITE MASTER BATHS MAKE THIS RESIDENCE UNIQUE. HOME HAS MANY WONDERFUL UPGRADES. A MUST SEE!!

Key facts

• Gut renovation
• 0.43 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GUT RENOVATION
• CONVENIENT TO DOWNTOWN
• CONVENIENT TO AIRPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential single-family zoned RSC-6; Total building area reported (per records); Universal property ID available
• HOA & community: No HOA association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 24)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Faces north; Listed as fixer condition; Homestead exemption indicated
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation; Building area information provided
• Exterior features: Private in-ground pool; Asphalt road frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 135 x 138; Lot size about 0.43 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Radiant ceiling heating; No cooling listed
• Interior features: Family room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3 ($-35/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#150 in FL, #2,274 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D-.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,634 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-55,994
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-77,436
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33618

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$290 /mo · $3,484/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $298,489

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $166	-5% $82	+0% $-3	+5% $-88	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-102	+0% $-3	+5% $96	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $73	base $-3	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2523 Krueger Ln Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	2030	$2,750	$1.35	15d	1	0.06mi
2523 Krueger Ln Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	2030	$2,750	$1.35	14d	1	0.06mi
12418 Julius St Tampa, FL	3.0	3.0	2356	$2,485	$1.05	21d	1	0.23mi
3314 Nakora Dr Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1810	$3,650	$2.02	2d	1	1.19mi
10707 N Rome Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	2.5	1932	$2,500	$1.29	25d	1	1.22mi
13609 Heritage Way Unit 1395641P Tampa, FL	4.0	3.0	2303	$10,816	$4.70	24d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 236-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   status $299,000 Pending 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 196-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $299,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,484 · $290/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,484 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$3,484
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$5,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $1,204/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Carrollwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #150
• US rank: #2274

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carrollwood, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 40,533
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,771
• Household income: $84,788
• Rent vs Own: 30.0% rent · 70.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1086.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 7% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -295.54%
• Current HPI: 355.9374
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+243.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $299,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $269,000 Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (MLS) $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-07 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-01 Listed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $123,000 Public Records
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $91,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,484 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.