2904 Chapman St

Houston, TX 77009

$419,990C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Active · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,417/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$1,421
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,398
• Net cashflow: $5,396/mo
• Annual: $64,749/yr
• Cap rate: 21.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.06%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.72%
• Cash to close: $117,597

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $420k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($65k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $420k).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $395k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 604 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $118k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $11,417/mo this rent would consume 165% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 994% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.