2266 John B Ave

Warren, MI 48091

$74,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $450/mo
• Annual: $5,398/yr
• Cap rate: 13.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.74%
• DSCR: 2.15
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Fitzgerald Public Schools (urban): math 8% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #503 of 540 in MI (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Westview Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,149 of 1,397 statewide, top 84%, 451 students, 84% FRL); Pd Chatterton Middle School (math 9% / reading 27%, grade F, #433 of 493 statewide, top 88%, 410 students, 86% FRL); Fitzgerald Senior High School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #636 of 713 statewide, top 89%, 806 students, 82% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $75k implies a 970% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.2% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.