6226 E Evans Creek Rd Unit 15

Wimer, OR 97537

$179,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 1982 · Land · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,455/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $882/mo
• Annual: $10,579/yr
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.00%
• DSCR: 1.93
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#326 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rogue River SD 35 (other): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #129 of 183 in OR (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $180k implies a 682% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.5% in Wimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.