6226 E Evans Creek Rd Unit 15 · Wimer, OR 97537

$179,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Land public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1982 $101/sqft · 48% below area Est $346k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully renovated inside and out, 3bd, 2ba, split floor plan, primary with ensuite, granit and stainless in kitchen, vaulted ceilings, laundry rm, roof 1yr, water heater 3yr, heatpump 6yr. Meticulous craftsmanship throughout. Fabulous mountain views. This home sits on a double lot in Golden Rogue Mobile Estaes, #15, Rogue River Or. A senior park. 600. space rent includes water, sewer, garbage.

Key facts

• Water heater 3yr
• Renovated
• Roof 1yr

Tags

• RENOVATED
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LAUNDRY RM
• ROOF 1YR
• WATER HEATER 3YR
• HEAT PUMP 6YR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $882 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 2.5% in Wimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#326 in OR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Rogue River SD 35 (other): math 30% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #129 of 183 in OR (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $180k implies a 682% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.00%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,217
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -48.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,918
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $95,424
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97537

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $882

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7312 E Evans Creek Rd Rogue River, OR	2.0	2.0	1776	$2,375	$1.34	21d	1	0.94mi
7429 W Evans Creek Rd Rogue River, OR	4.0	2.5	1600	$2,595	$1.62	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-05-03
    price $185,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Beautifully renovated inside and out, 3bd, 2ba, split floor plan, primary with ensuite, granit and stainless in kitchen, vaulted ceilings, laundry rm, roof 1yr, water heater 3yr, heatpump 6yr. Meticulous craftsmanship throughout. Fabulous mountain views. This home sits on a double lot in Golden Rogue Mobile Estaes, #15, Rogue River Or. A senior park. 600. space rent includes water, sewer, garbage.

19. 2026-04-07
    price $189,000 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Beautifully renovated inside and out, 3bd, 2ba, split floor plan, primary with ensuite, granit and stainless in kitchen, vaulted ceilings, laundry rm, roof 1yr, water heater 3yr, heatpump 6yr. Meticulous craftsmanship throughout. Fabulous mountain views. This home sits on a double lot in Golden Rogue Mobile Estaes, #15, Rogue River Or. A senior park. 600. space rent includes water, sewer, garbage.

20. 2026-03-24
    listed $199,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Beautifully renovated inside and out, 3bd, 2ba, split floor plan, primary with ensuite, granit and stainless in kitchen, vaulted ceilings, laundry rm, roof 1yr, water heater 3yr, heatpump 6yr. Meticulous craftsmanship throughout. Fabulous mountain views. This home sits on a double lot in Golden Rogue Mobile Estaes, #15, Rogue River Or. A senior park. 600. space rent includes water, sewer, garbage.

21. 2019-03-29
    soldstatus $23,000 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Must see. Move in ready, this 1982 double wide home boast 1982 sq. ft. Very quiet park in the country yet close to town. This is a complete package. Washer, dryer, fridge and freezer all stay. Also new garbage disposal.

22. 2019-02-25
    listed $39,900 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Must see. Move in ready, this 1982 double wide home boast 1982 sq. ft. Very quiet park in the country yet close to town. This is a complete package. Washer, dryer, fridge and freezer all stay. Also new garbage disposal.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,745 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,273/yr (+$106/mo · 269.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $8,062
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,935
• After-tax cash flow: $8,644/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogue River SD 35
• NCES district ID: 4110680
• Math proficiency: 30% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,632
• Composite: 34.12/100
• National rank: #10284
• State rank: #129 of 183 in OR

Livability — Wimer

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #23562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,656
• Population (ZIP): 6,656

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Slovak 3% Hungarian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.39%
• Current HPI: 368.9866
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+363.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $185,000 MLSCO
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $189,000 MLSCO
• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,000 MLSCO
• 2019-03-29 Sold (MLS) $23,000 MLSCO
• 2019-02-25 Listed $39,900 MLSCO

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $472 · +78.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.