306 Elm St

Kincaid, IL 62540

$105,000C+

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,004/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $124/mo
• Annual: $1,484/yr
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (4.4% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#622 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork SD 14 (rural): math 10% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #744 of 919 in IL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $105k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.