306 Elm St · Kincaid, IL 62540

$105,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,180 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1930 0.41 ac lot Est $125k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Neat as a pin" 2 bedroom, 1 1/2 bath home has nice kitchen with lots of oak cabinets and all appliances. Sunroom has sliding glass doors. Half bath in full basement. New roof 2009. Huge 2 1/2 car garage with storage area in back for lawn equipment and extras.

Key facts

• Propane
• 0.41 acre lot
• Built 1930

Tags

• BLACK STONE GRIDDLE GRILL
• PROPANE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 17,952 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $124 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $100k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#622 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork SD 14 (rural): math 10% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #744 of 919 in IL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Christian County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $105k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $100,371 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Elm St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,018 (-14%)	6mo	$110,000	$108	65
200 Hickory St	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,244 (+5%)	12mo	$145,000	$117	64
214 Hickory St	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,190 (+1%)	20mo	$126,000	$106	62
121 Walnut St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,308 (+11%)	3mo	$165,000	$126	60
305 North Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,232 (+4%)	18mo	$30,000	$24	55
305 North Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,232 (+4%)	18mo	$30,000	$24	55
326 Hickory St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-4%)	22mo	$103,500	$92	55
313 Hickory St	0.15mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-4%)	22mo	$88,000	$78	54
108 Garrison St	0.42mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-7%)	11mo	$130,000	$118	52
460 George St	0.66mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (+5%)	5mo	$61,000	$49	43
107 N Avenue St	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	21mo	$125,000	$95	41
201 Miss Debra Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,048 (-11%)	6mo	$121,000	$115	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $24,606
• Equity at exit: $51,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $71,626
• Equity at exit: $83,053

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62540

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 114-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$742/yr (+$62/mo · 82.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$964
• − Management: −$964
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $1,542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork SD 14
• NCES district ID: 1736640
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $41,398
• Composite: 18.34/100
• National rank: #14054
• State rank: #744 of 919 in IL

Livability — Kincaid

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #12725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kincaid, IL
• City population: 1,287
• Population (ZIP): 1,287

Population outlook (Christian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,182 people
• By 2030: 29,787 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 26,793 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 23,757 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 17,333 · -44.4%
• By 2100: 11,573 · -62.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Danish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Christian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.7) · D 25.9% · R 72.6% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -46.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.7 2020: R+44.6 2016: R+42.7 2012: R+23.1 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 152.9706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+79.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $105,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-30 Sold (MLS) $54,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-08-18 Listed $58,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $898 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.