2603 Wallingford Dr

Mansfield, TX 76084

$450,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,587 sqft · Built 2019 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,308/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$1,092
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $-914/mo
• Annual: $-10,964/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-914 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (35.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (26.5% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $289k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cora Spencer El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mansfield ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.