2603 Wallingford Dr · Mansfield, TX 76084

$450,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,587 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2019 7,275 sqft lot Est $530k · 15% under $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2603 Wallingford Dr in Venus, TX, from the moment you step inside, you're greeted by a bright, open layout that feels comfortable and easy to live in. The main living area flows naturally into the kitchen and dining space, making it a great place for everyday moments—whether that's family dinners, weekend breakfasts, or relaxing after a long day. The thoughtfully designed kitchen offers plenty of storage and workspace, including convenient pull-out drawers that make organizing cookware and dishes effortless. One of the standout features of this home is its flexible floor plan. The original study has been professionally converted into a true fifth bedroom, complete with a do

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Flexible floor plan
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• FIFTH BEDROOM
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions; Subdivision: Somerset Add Ph 1
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee; includes full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by FirstService Residential

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car attached garage (garage faces front); Paved parking; 2 covered spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water and city sewer; Curbs and sidewalks; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence, one story; Built in 2019; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio and covered porch(es); Gutters; Exterior lighting; Wood fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Gas cooktop and gas oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms (primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 bathrooms total — 2 full, 1 half; Primary bathroom with garden tub, separate shower, dual sinks, built-in cabinets, and granite countertops; Additional bathroom with granite countertop and dual sinks
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen island and breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Built-in features and cabinets; Decorative lighting; High-speed internet available; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Utility/laundry room; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-914 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (35.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $331k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $289k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cora Spencer El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Mansfield ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 428 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $288,594 (35.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.70%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $530,335
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2515 Wallingford Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,557 (-1%)	1mo	$475,000	$186	90
2611 Alden Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,554 (-1%)	4mo	$490,000	$192	84
3113 Linham Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5	2,650 (+2%)	2mo	$440,000	$166	81
2508 Lakeway Ln	0.19mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,527 (-2%)	2mo	$554,990	$220	76
2514 Wallingford Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,821 (+9%)	2mo	$460,000	$163	75
2504 Veranda Way	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,524 (-2%)	1mo	$459,900	$182	61
2208 Birch St	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,367 (-8%)	2mo	$599,990	$253	61
2411 Hagen Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,778 (+7%)	2mo	$549,990	$198	59
2608 Acton Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,253 (-13%)	1mo	$522,990	$232	59
2209 Birch St	0.42mi	4/4.0	2,932 (+13%)	3mo	$624,990	$213	48
2613 Brazos Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,863 (+11%)	2mo	$684,990	$239	46
2109 Wexley	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,774 (+7%)	2mo	$569,900	$205	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $106,135
• Equity at exit: $321,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $347,868
• Equity at exit: $619,118

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 428
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$905 /mo · $10,859/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$695
• Net cashflow: $-914

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,465

Max offer price $288,594

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-659	-5% $-786	+0% $-914	+5% $-1,041	+10% $-1,168
Rent	-10% $-1,175	-5% $-1,044	+0% $-914	+5% $-783	+10% $-652
Rate	-1.0pp $-687	-0.5pp $-799	base $-914	+0.5pp $-1,030	+1.0pp $-1,149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3406 Woodford Dr Venus, TX	4.0	4.0	3494	$3,500	$1.00	44d	1	0.35mi
3406 Woodford Dr Venus, TX	4.0	3.5	3494	$3,500	$1.00	0d	1	0.35mi
1612 Birch St Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2593	$3,399	$1.31	25d	1	1.00mi
3724 Twin Pines Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2389	$3,200	$1.34	25d	1	1.35mi
3722 Autumncrest St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2457	$3,100	$1.26	8d	1	1.38mi
3668 Walnut Ridge Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2654	$3,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.43mi
2614 High Bluff Dr Mansfield, TX	4.0	3.0	2852	$3,600	$1.26	13d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $450,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,859 · $905/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,859 · $905/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$10,859
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,176
• − Management: −$3,176
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$18,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,550
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mansfield ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828920
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,934
• Composite: 45.82/100
• National rank: #2558
• State rank: #125 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #5833

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, TX
• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $450,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+41.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,859 · +10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.