48 Lincoln Ave

Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$780,000A-

None bd · 1.5 ba · 2,156 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $20,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,090
• Tax + insurance: −$1,300
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,259
• Net cashflow: $10,633/mo
• Annual: $127,592/yr
• Cap rate: 22.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.42%
• DSCR: 3.60
• 1% rule: 2.60%
• Cash to close: $218,400

Investor read

• This is a ?-bed/1.5-bath multifamily listed at $780k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11k ($128k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $780k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($733k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $733k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Avenue Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 393 students, 21% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $218k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 22.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $20,282/mo this rent would consume 239% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1424% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Severe weathering
• Major: roof — Significant wear
• Major: flooring — Concrete in poor condition
• Major: interior walls — Exposed subflooring
• Major: systems — Exposed wiring and plumbing