18 Forsythia Dr

Monticello, NY 12701

$160,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,054/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$815
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,580/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (27.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $117k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears old and possibly leaking.
• Major: exterior siding — The siding and paint are worn and faded, indicating a need for replacement or repainting.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — The exterior condition suggests the HVAC systems may be old and in need of maintenance or replacement.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, which detracts from the curb appeal of the property.