18 Forsythia Dr · Monticello, NY 12701

$160,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 5 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition Est $118k · 36% over $815/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Now Available Starting at Just $160,000! Don't miss your chance to own this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2 full bath, 1 half bath home situated on a desirable corner lot and complete with a full kitchen appliance package. This move-in-ready home offers comfort, convenience, and incredible value. Located in the heart of New York's stunning Catskill Mountains, Kinnebrook Estates provides more than just a home it offers a lifestyle. Residents enjoy access to exceptional community amenities, including: -Swimming Pool -Playground -Basketball Court -Community Center -Dog Park -On-Site Management -24-Hour Maintenance Whether you're enjoying summer days by the pool, exploring nearby outdoor attractions,

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Swimming pool
• Basketball court

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FULL KITCHEN APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• PLAYGROUND
• BASKETBALL COURT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (27.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#899 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello Central School District (town): math 29% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #577 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: George L Cooke School (592 students, 71% FRL); Robert J Kaiser Middle School (math 7% / reading 35%, grade F, #661 of 729 statewide, top 91%, 595 students, 66% FRL); Monticello High School (math 82% / reading 34%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 844 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.

Recommended offer $116,827 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $117,600
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Forsythia Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	6mo	$110,000	$70	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $68,670
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $218,222
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12701

• Home prices YoY: 16.7%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$815
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,431

Max offer price $116,827

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-188	-5% $-243	+0% $-298	+5% $-354	+10% $-409
Rent	-10% $-461	-5% $-379	+0% $-298	+5% $-217	+10% $-136
Rate	-1.0pp $-218	-0.5pp $-258	base $-298	+0.5pp $-340	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $815 · $9,780/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on marketlisting id $160,000 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 687-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,971
• − Management: −$1,971
• − HOA: −$9,780
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,896
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including painting, landscaping, and roof repair. These updates would significantly increase its value and make it more attractive to buyers and renters.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears old and possibly leaking.
• Major exterior siding — The siding and paint are worn and faded, indicating a need for replacement or repainting.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The exterior condition suggests the HVAC systems may be old and in need of maintenance or replacement.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, which detracts from the curb appeal of the property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can significantly increase the home's value and appeal.
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof can prevent further damage and increase the home's value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value.
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior can improve the home's condition and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears old and possibly leaking.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding and paint are worn and faded, indicating a need for replacement or repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The exterior condition suggests the HVAC systems may be old and in need of maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and unkempt, which detracts from the curb appeal of the property.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can significantly increase the home's value and appeal. ↑
• Both roof repair — Repairing the roof can prevent further damage and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC systems can improve comfort and energy efficiency, increasing the home's value. ↑
• Both interior updates — Updating the interior can improve the home's condition and increase its value for both resale and rental purposes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monticello Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619740
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,696
• Composite: 25.28/100
• National rank: #7491
• State rank: #577 of 590 in NY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #17510

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sullivan County · 12,197 people
• City population: 12,197
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 12,197
• Household income: $57,222
• Rent vs Own: 63.8% rent · 36.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 31% Black 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.71%
• Current HPI: 507.739
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $159,900 FSBO.com