43 N Forest Ave Unit C-23

Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$320,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Built 1940 · Condo · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,820/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$1,056
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-1,039/mo
• Annual: $-12,471/yr
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.92%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $89,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $320k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (11.9% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Rockville Centre Union Free School District (suburban): math 82% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #37 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Side Middle School (math 56% / reading 75%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 837 students, 14% FRL); South Side High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #336 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 999 students, 16% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $268k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?