43 N Forest Ave Unit C-23 · Rockville Centre, NY 11570

$320,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 725 sqft · Condo · 32 Days on market

Built 1940 $441/sqft · 8% below area Est $349k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Carol Gardens — one of Rockville Centre's best-kept secrets! This beautifully updated and spacious 1-bedroom, 1-bath co-op sits inside a charming and well-maintained European-inspired courtyard that instantly feels like home. Inside: refinished hardwood floors, granite countertops, an eat-in kitchen, 6 large closets, and a remodeled full bath — all across well-laid-out 725 sqft. The building delivers too: 24/7 gym, laundry, bike storage, and individual storage — all included. Here's what makes it a genuinely smart move — monthly maintenance of just $999.75 covers heat, taxes, water, and sewer, and only a 10% down payment is needed. You're a few blocks away from the LIRR, Sunrise Highway, and RVC's best cafés and restaurants! This is effortless Long Island living at an incredible value and won't last!

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1940
• Listed 32 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (11.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#17 in NY, #365 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Rockville Centre Union Free School District (suburban): math 82% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #37 of 590 in NY (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Side Middle School (math 56% / reading 75%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 837 students, 14% FRL); South Side High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #336 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 999 students, 16% FRL).
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $268k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,046 (11.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.92%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,987
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -8.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-117,355
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -68.6%
• Equity multiple: -1.06×
• Total profit: $-184,615
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11570

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,820 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$1,056
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $-1,039

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,136

Max offer price $169,614

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-818	-5% $-929	+0% $-1,039	+5% $-1,150	+10% $-1,260
Rent	-10% $-1,262	-5% $-1,151	+0% $-1,039	+5% $-928	+10% $-816
Rate	-1.0pp $-878	-0.5pp $-958	base $-1,039	+0.5pp $-1,122	+1.0pp $-1,207

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
275 Maple Ave Apt 6D Rockville Centre, NY	2.0	1.0	673	$2,875	$4.27	26d	1	0.25mi
91 Grand Ave Rockville Centre, NY	—	1.0	523	$2,025	$3.87	45d	1	0.36mi
80 N Centre Ave Rockville Centre, NY	3.0	1.0–3.5	1254	$3,953	$3.15	0d	1	0.73mi
8 Roswell Ave Oceanside, NY	2.0	1.5	741	$3,100	$4.18	26d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewergym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 854-char remark

   Show marketing remark (854 chars)

   Welcome to Carol Gardens — one of Rockville Centre's best-kept secrets! This beautifully updated and spacious 1-bedroom, 1-bath co-op sits inside a charming and well-maintained European-inspired courtyard that instantly feels like home. Inside: refinished hardwood floors, granite countertops, an eat-in kitchen, 6 large closets, and a remodeled full bath — all across well-laid-out 725 sqft. The building delivers too: 24/7 gym, laundry, bike storage, and individual storage — all included. Here's what makes it a genuinely smart move — monthly maintenance of just $999.75 covers heat, taxes, water, and sewer, and only a 10% down payment is needed. You're a few blocks away from the LIRR, Sunrise Highway, and RVC's best cafés and restaurants! This is effortless Long Island living at an incredible value and won't last!

2. 2026-04-06
   listed $320,000 Active 854-char remark

   Show marketing remark (854 chars)

   Welcome to Carol Gardens — one of Rockville Centre's best-kept secrets! This beautifully updated and spacious 1-bedroom, 1-bath co-op sits inside a charming and well-maintained European-inspired courtyard that instantly feels like home. Inside: refinished hardwood floors, granite countertops, an eat-in kitchen, 6 large closets, and a remodeled full bath — all across well-laid-out 725 sqft. The building delivers too: 24/7 gym, laundry, bike storage, and individual storage — all included. Here's what makes it a genuinely smart move — monthly maintenance of just $999.75 covers heat, taxes, water, and sewer, and only a 10% down payment is needed. You're a few blocks away from the LIRR, Sunrise Highway, and RVC's best cafés and restaurants! This is effortless Long Island living at an incredible value and won't last!

3. 2026-03-17
   historical
4. 2025-11-02
   price $338,000
5. 2025-10-23
   listed $345,000 Active
6. 2022-01-05
   soldstatus $268,000 Closed
7. 2021-09-09
   status Pending
8. 2021-06-16
   listed $272,000 Active
9. 2014-12-13
   historical
10. 2014-08-13
    listed $225,000
11. 2014-08-06
    historical
12. 2014-02-06
    listed $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,708
• − Management: −$2,708
• − HOA: −$12,672
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$17,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,290
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockville Centre Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624780
• Math proficiency: 82% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 82% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,401
• Composite: 74.33/100
• National rank: #162
• State rank: #37 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rockville Centre

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #365

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockville Centre, NY
• County: Nassau County · 653,051 people
• City population: 28,908
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,908
• Household income: $157,163
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 4% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -731.15%
• Current HPI: 275.9882
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $338,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $345,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-05 Sold (MLS) $268,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-16 Listed $272,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-13 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-06 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-06 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid