639 1/2 Park Ave #2

Dunkirk, NY 14048

$129,900C

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,870 sqft · Built 1898 · MultiFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $54/mo
• Annual: $651/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $54 ($651/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Significant weathering
• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation