1041 Hillburn Dr

West Tawakoni, TX 75474

$209,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$384
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-686/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-686/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $182k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.