1041 Hillburn Dr · West Tawakoni, TX 75474

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2023 6,578 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $219k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PROPERTY COMES FULLY FURNISHED! Welcome home to 1041 Hillburn Drive, where the possibilities are endless and lake living awaits. Located in the desirable Indian Oaks community with access to a private neighborhood boat ramp, this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home offers a spacious open-concept floorplan designed for comfortable everyday living and entertaining. Luxury vinyl flooring flows throughout the main living areas, creating a modern and low-maintenance feel. The kitchen is beautifully appointed with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, ample cabinetry, and a center island overlooking the living and dining spaces. The spacious laundry room includes a convenient mud bench

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Center island
• Convenient mud bench

Tags

• PRIVATE NEIGHBORHOOD BOAT RAMP
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTER ISLAND
• CONVENIENT MUD BENCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Indian Oaks Add; County: Hunt
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA (Indian Oaks HOA); HOA fee $150 annually; HOA covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: All-weather road access; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Property is attached; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2023; Preowned
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Few trees; Interior lot; Boat ramp in community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Breakfast bar; Water line to refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; Window coverings; One living area; One dining area; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-686/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.6% in West Tawakoni — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,337 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,335 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,746
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -4.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1029 Crestline Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,345 (+7%)	3mo	$230,000	$171	83
1005 Woodland Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,258 (0%)	15mo	$199,999	$159	83
1037 Hillburn Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-0%)	20mo	$218,000	$174	82
1025 Hillburn Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-0%)	20mo	$200,000	$160	80
1009 Hillburn Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-0%)	21mo	$200,000	$160	78
913 Hillburn Dr	0.16mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+7%)	2mo	$245,000	$181	75
109 Seagrove Ln	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,335 (+6%)	8mo	$134,000	$100	68
912 Oak Hill Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	7mo	$225,000	$160	66
401 Shenandoah	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+5%)	8mo	$209,999	$159	60
425 Shenandoah	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,312 (+4%)	14mo	$244,000	$186	51
232 Doebecca Pkwy	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-11%)	13mo	$250,000	$223	51
408 Bella Vista Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,394 (+11%)	15mo	$395,000	$283	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $110,730
• Equity at exit: $189,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $329,059
• Equity at exit: $407,790

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,557/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $199,795

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $62	-5% $2	+0% $-57	+5% $-117	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-129	+0% $-57	+5% $15	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-4	base $-57	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-167

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 Hillside Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,800	$1.28	3d	1	0.25mi
200 Dover Dr Unit 1 or 2 West Tawakoni, TX	3.0	2.5	1854	$1,850	$1.00	2d	1	0.37mi
206 Perch Dr Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,795	$1.15	2d	1	0.95mi
550 Quail Run Cir Quinlan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,300	$1.08	16d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    listed $209,900 Active 1066-char remark
15. 2024-05-31
    historical
16. 2023-12-01
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,557 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,841 · $320/mo
• Expected delta: +$284/yr (+$24/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$3,557
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Tawakoni

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1337
• US rank: #23022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Tawakoni, TX
• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $209,900 NTREIS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-12-01 Listed $225,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+21.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,557 · -11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.