1251 E 22nd St

Erie, PA 16503

$105,000C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-296/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-296/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $85k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley El Sch (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,453 of 1,518 statewide, top 96%, 459 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $105k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.