1251 E 22nd St · Erie, PA 16503

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1920 4,356 sqft lot Est $135k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute Cape! Relax on the covered front porch! Living room with updated carpet, dining room with hardwood floor, 2 bedrooms and a full bath on the 1st floor. Plus an upstairs bedroom. Forced Air Gas furnace-5yrs, 100 Amp-2017, newer plumbing. Off street parking.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1920

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot; Paved road access; Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Carpet and hardwood flooring; Full basement; 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-296/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mckinley El Sch (math 6% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,453 of 1,518 statewide, top 96%, 459 students, 100% FRL); Woodrow Wilson Ms (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #489 of 512 statewide, top 96%, 756 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $105k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $85,260 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1246 E 28th St	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,176 (0%)	0mo	$139,900	$119	82
1060 E 24th St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+2%)	3mo	$35,000	$29	75
2925 Pennsylvania Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,157 (-2%)	2mo	$133,000	$115	65
1417 E 28th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,116 (-5%)	2mo	$150,000	$134	64
2807 East Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,172 (-0%)	7mo	$137,000	$117	63
1021 E 31st St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (0%)	2mo	$130,900	$111	62
2623 Perry St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+2%)	6mo	$100,000	$83	58
1033 E 29 St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$146	56
972 E 32nd St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (+2%)	4mo	$135,000	$113	52
1250 E 32nd St	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-10%)	4mo	$65,000	$62	50
1449 E 31st St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-10%)	2mo	$171,500	$162	46
834 E 28th St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+12%)	0mo	$60,000	$45	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $27,062
• Equity at exit: $64,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $81,296
• Equity at exit: $114,958

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,246/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $884

Max offer price $100,636

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $5	+0% $-25	+5% $-54	+10% $-84
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-58	+0% $-25	+5% $9	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $2	base $-25	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
626 E 23rd St Unit 2 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	850	$800	$0.94	45d	1	0.89mi
614 E 22nd St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,000	$0.77	45d	1	0.91mi
612 E 14th St #1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	775	$850	$1.10	45d	1	1.07mi
1404 E Lake Rd Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	45d	1	1.15mi
407 E 13th St Unit 2 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	1.33mi
519 E 6th St Unit 3 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$775	$0.86	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 337-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,246 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,453 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 16.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,246
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$818
• − Management: −$818
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$2,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+144.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $105,000 GEBOR
• 2023-10-16 Sold (MLS) $35,000 GEBOR
• 2023-08-24 Pending — GEBOR
• 2023-08-07 Listed $42,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,246 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.