6210 S Northern Lights St

Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$220,000C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Built 1991 · Other · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$377
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $608/mo
• Annual: $7,299/yr
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.85%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dena'Ina Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 435 students, 74% FRL); Joe Redington Senior Jr/Sr High School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #27 of 61 statewide, top 43%, 556 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 33% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.