6210 S Northern Lights St · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$220,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · Other public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper Unfinished Home with Expansive 1,200 Sq Ft Shop - Unlock the Potential! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home (with plumbed second bath) spans two stories, with 1,080 square feet per level. . The real gem is the expansive 1,200-square-foot shop--large enough for an RV and ideal for a workshop or business. This property offers a rare blend of home and workspace potential.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• 6 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $608 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dena'Ina Elementary School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #61 of 156 statewide, top 41%, 435 students, 74% FRL); Joe Redington Senior Jr/Sr High School (math 27% / reading 45%, grade F, #27 of 61 statewide, top 43%, 556 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 33% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 420 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $220,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.85%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,600
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $55,117
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,419/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $608

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $733	-5% $670	+0% $608	+5% $546	+10% $484
Rent	-10% $394	-5% $501	+0% $608	+5% $715	+10% $822
Rate	-1.0pp $719	-0.5pp $664	base $608	+0.5pp $551	+1.0pp $493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8668 W Grebe Ct Wasilla, AK	3.0	3.0	2060	$3,000	$1.46	15d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $220,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,419 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,419 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,419
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $4,044
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$971
• After-tax cash flow: $6,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $220,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,419 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.