2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
728 sqft ·
Built 1942
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,105/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$886
Tax + insurance
−$244
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$232
Net cashflow
$-257/mo
Annual
$-3,087/yr
Cap rate
4.47%
Cash-on-cash
-6.52%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$47,320
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-257 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (26.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (34.6% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (34.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#871 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Alta Vista El (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #4,207 of 4,322 statewide, top 98%, 545 students, 89% FRL, charter); Cesar Chavez Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 840 students, 94% FRL); University H S (math 39% / reading 31%, grade F, #954 of 1,632 statewide, top 59%, 1,678 students, 89% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29