The Timberline Plan

Shady Hills, FL 34669

$79,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $1,117/mo
• Annual: $13,407/yr
• Cap rate: 23.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.93%
• DSCR: 3.67
• 1% rule: 2.64%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major: exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major: flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major: interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major: bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major: kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.