The Timberline Plan · Shady Hills, FL 34669

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · SingleFamily · 120 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss your chance to own this brand-new home in Hudson, FL! Now under construction, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1216 sq. ft. of modern living with a seamless open-concept layout connecting the living room and kitchen. The private primary suite and versatile secondary bedrooms make this home ideal for any lifestyle. Limited-time offer: get 5% off if sold before delivery! Call now, speak with our sales agent, and secure this home today-homes like this move fast!

Key facts

• Listed 120 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and power available; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan home; Located in Hudson, FL (34669)
• Construction: New construction plan (The Timberline)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan home — The Timberline

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.1% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Moon Lake Elementary School (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 579 students, 70% FRL); Hudson Academy (math 35% / reading 30%, grade F, #443 of 571 statewide, top 78%, 964 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 303 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.93%
• DSCR: 3.67
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $58,240
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.37×
• Total profit: $142,468
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34669

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $1,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,172	-5% $1,145	+0% $1,117	+5% $1,090	+10% $1,062
Rent	-10% $950	-5% $1,034	+0% $1,117	+5% $1,201	+10% $1,284
Rate	-1.0pp $1,157	-0.5pp $1,138	base $1,117	+0.5pp $1,097	+1.0pp $1,075

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 Tropical Breeze Way Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,000	$1.37	6d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,029
• − Management: −$2,029
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $12,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,097
• After-tax cash flow: $10,310/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home is under construction and requires extensive repairs and updates to reach a livable condition. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.
• Major windows — No visible windows in the satellite image.
• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure in the satellite image.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint/staining would enhance curb appeal and value.
• Both flooring installation — New flooring would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both kitchen updates — Modernizing the kitchen would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both window replacements — New windows would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve the home's condition and value.
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · No visible roof in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No visible exterior in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No visible flooring in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
kitchen · No visible kitchen in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No visible systems in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No visible foundation/structure in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 11 items		$165,000–550,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both exterior painting/staining — A fresh coat of paint/staining would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both flooring installation — New flooring would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both interior painting — Fresh paint would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both bathroom updates — Modernizing bathrooms would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both kitchen updates — Modernizing the kitchen would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both system upgrades — Upgrading systems would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both window replacements — New windows would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,618
• Household income: $58,638
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 176.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.24%
• Current HPI: 321.5862
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B