22 Carrona Dr

Riverside, CT 06878

$1,295,000C

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,885 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,802/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,791
• Tax + insurance: −$1,188
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,059
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,823/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $362,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.25M (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $980k (24.3% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $980k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $103k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $94k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#60 in CT, #3,626 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Riverside School (math 84% / reading 89%, grade A+, #4 of 553 statewide, top 1%, 435 students, 2% FRL); Eastern Middle School (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A+, #2 of 175 statewide, top 1%, 784 students, 6% FRL); Greenwich High School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade B, #23 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 2,668 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$165k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.