2715 Dixie Rd

Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$185,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,041 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,686/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $823/yr
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($823/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.9% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philip O'Brien Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 627 students, 61% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $185k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.