2715 Dixie Rd · Combee Settlement, FL 33801

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,041 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1957 8,947 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DON'T MISS THIS 3 BEDROOM, 2 BATH BLOCK HOME WITH MANY UPGRADES! HOME SITS ON ALMOST 1/4 ACRE FENCED LOT WITH DETACHED 20X20 GARAGE WITH WORKSHOP. NEWER A/C & ROOF, AND NEW CARPET & PAINT. NO HOMESTEAD EXEMPTION FOR 2008.

Key facts

• No cdd
• Cul de sac
• Carport

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• CARPORT
• CUL DE SAC
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• NO HOA
• NO CDD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential — Single Family Residence; Zoning: R-2; Total lot size about 0.21 acres; Living area reported 1,041 sq ft; Building area total reported 1,482 sq ft; Unfurnished
• Financial info: Lease restrictions: none indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA association listed; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available; Water and sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area reported (building area total 1,482 sq ft)
• Exterior features: Trees and landscaped yard; In-county lot; Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 121

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($823/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Philip O'Brien Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 627 students, 61% FRL); Crystal Lake Middle School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #497 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 949 students, 71% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $185k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,550 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-28,835
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-32,217
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33801

• Home prices YoY: -15.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,588/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,599

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $121	+0% $69	+5% $16	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-65	-5% $2	+0% $69	+5% $135	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $116	base $69	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2721 Doyle Cir Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,795	$1.39	25d	1	0.38mi
2415 Idlewild St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	25d	1	0.46mi
1452 Ridge Lake Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	960	$1,700	$1.77	23d	1	0.48mi
2417 Golfview St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	798	$1,395	$1.75	12d	1	0.57mi
635 Meridian Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,750	$1.45	5d	1	0.76mi
2155 Lone Oak Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,100	$1.41	25d	1	1.01mi
3245 E Main St Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	16d	1	1.16mi
3245 E Main St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	1.16mi
2400 Timbercreek Loop W Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.0	1108	$1,910	$1.72	25d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $185,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 280-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $185,000 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,588 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,226
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,588
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$544
• After-tax cash flow: $1,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Combee Settlement

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8672

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Combee Settlement, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,394
• Household income: $53,061
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1291.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.91%
• Current HPI: 373.7159
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.05%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-09-26 Sold (MLS) $98,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-22 Listed $89,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-29 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,588 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.