1440 Equestrian Dr

Weigelstown, PA 17315

$199,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,443 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$425
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $288/yr
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($288/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.2% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#527 in PA, #4,886 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weigelstown El Sch (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #883 of 1,518 statewide, top 61%, 302 students, 66% FRL); Dover Area Ms (math 27% / reading 56%, grade F, #234 of 512 statewide, top 47%, 803 students, 53% FRL); Dover Area Hs (math 72% / reading 15%, grade F, #213 of 437 statewide, top 49%, 1,016 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 30% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Weigelstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.