1440 Equestrian Dr · Weigelstown, PA 17315

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot Est $240k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained rancher. This home has a wonderful family room addition, 1st floor laundry, numerous possibilities for water-free basement to add living space. Refrigerator in garage and generator convey. Great Landscaping. Possible quick settlement for the start of school. Don't miss this gem.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry attached garage with inside access and garage door opener; Two garage parking spaces; Additional parking available on driveway and on street; off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for cooling and hot water
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Above-grade finished living space as recorded by assessor
• Construction: Frame construction; Block foundation; Other structures above and below grade
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; No tidal water nearby

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (oil); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Living area measured per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($288/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.3% in Weigelstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#527 in PA, #4,886 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Weigelstown El Sch (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #883 of 1,518 statewide, top 61%, 302 students, 66% FRL); Dover Area Ms (math 27% / reading 56%, grade F, #234 of 512 statewide, top 47%, 803 students, 53% FRL); Dover Area Hs (math 72% / reading 15%, grade F, #213 of 437 statewide, top 49%, 1,016 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 30% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,500 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,538
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1711 Ashcombe Dr	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,472 (+2%)	12mo	$295,000	$200	67
1445 Steeple Chase Dr	0.02mi	3/1.5	1,568 (+9%)	23mo	$237,500	$151	65
3417 Fox Ridge Ct	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,479 (+2%)	12mo	$245,000	$166	62
3300 Pebble Run Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	3mo	$353,400	$261	57
1702 Ashcombe Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,410 (-2%)	15mo	$312,000	$221	54
110-A Mohawk Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$90,000	$67	52
1705 Virginia Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,652 (+14%)	6mo	$224,900	$136	43
1892 Red Wing Ln	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,560 (+8%)	14mo	$230,000	$147	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-30,778
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,486
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17315

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,097/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,865

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $81	+0% $24	+5% $-33	+10% $-89
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-51	+0% $24	+5% $99	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $75	base $24	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3712 Castle Dr Dover, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $199,900 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $199,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-26
   historical $199,900
9. 2005-09-09
   soldstatus $159,900
10. 2005-09-07
    soldstatus $159,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Beautifully maintained rancher. This home has a wonderful family room addition, 1st floor laundry, numerous possibilities for water-free basement to add living space. Refrigerator in garage and generator convey. Great Landscaping. Possible quick settlement for the start of school. Don't miss this gem.

11. 2005-08-05
    historical 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Beautifully maintained rancher. This home has a wonderful family room addition, 1st floor laundry, numerous possibilities for water-free basement to add living space. Refrigerator in garage and generator convey. Great Landscaping. Possible quick settlement for the start of school. Don't miss this gem.

12. 2005-07-28
    listed $159,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Beautifully maintained rancher. This home has a wonderful family room addition, 1st floor laundry, numerous possibilities for water-free basement to add living space. Refrigerator in garage and generator convey. Great Landscaping. Possible quick settlement for the start of school. Don't miss this gem.

13. 2005-03-14
    soldstatus $139,500
14. 2005-03-11
    soldstatus $139,500 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Rambling Rancher - Light & Bright Decor - Open Design - Well maintained w/ numerous updates- this home is in move in condition. Remodeled kitchen, newer flooring and roof. Replaced heat pump 1 1/2 yrs ago - oil back up. Sellers building - possession by 3/11/05 - Will lease back.

15. 2004-12-10
    historical 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Rambling Rancher - Light & Bright Decor - Open Design - Well maintained w/ numerous updates- this home is in move in condition. Remodeled kitchen, newer flooring and roof. Replaced heat pump 1 1/2 yrs ago - oil back up. Sellers building - possession by 3/11/05 - Will lease back.

16. 2004-12-04
    listed $139,500 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Rambling Rancher - Light & Bright Decor - Open Design - Well maintained w/ numerous updates- this home is in move in condition. Remodeled kitchen, newer flooring and roof. Replaced heat pump 1 1/2 yrs ago - oil back up. Sellers building - possession by 3/11/05 - Will lease back.

17. 1999-04-30
    soldstatus $95,000
18. 1999-04-23
    soldstatus $95,000
19. 1999-03-23
    historical
20. 1999-01-16
    listed $97,900
21. 1994-06-01
    soldstatus $95,000
22. 1991-06-28
    soldstatus $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,097 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,097 · $341/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,097
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$722
• After-tax cash flow: $1,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207680
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,418
• Composite: 40.44/100
• National rank: #3725
• State rank: #232 of 539 in PA

Livability — Weigelstown

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #4886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weigelstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,434

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.65%
• Current HPI: 247.2403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+122.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Coming Soon $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2005-09-07 Sold (MLS) $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-08-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-07-28 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $139,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-11 Sold (MLS) $139,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-12-04 Listed $139,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-23 Sold (MLS) $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-03-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-01-16 Listed $97,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1991-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,097 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.