3111 Rio Grande Trl #3111

Kissimmee, FL 34741

$190,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Built 1988 · Condo · Pending · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,012/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$294
• HOA: −$334
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-420/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-420/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (3.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kissimmee Elementary School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Kissimmee Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,289 students, 59% FRL); Osceola High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,391 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $190k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,012/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 5248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?