3111 Rio Grande Trl #3111 · Kissimmee, FL 34741

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · Condo public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1988 $334/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUGE PRICE IMPROVEMENT - ESTATE SALE - Property Must Go! PROPERTY TO BE RE-ROOFED IN NEAR FUTURE AT NO EXPENSE TO BUYER. Great investment opportunity, snowbird retreat, or primary residence! Prime Location! PRISTINE CONDITION! This fully furnished 3-bedroom, 2-bath condo in Shadow Bay is perfectly located in the heart of Kissimmee. Enjoy peace of mind with a new HVAC (2025) and brand-new carpet throughout. The spacious primary suite is conveniently located on the first floor and features an ensuite bath with dual access from both the bedroom and main living area, plus an additional vanity and sink for added convenience. The living and dining areas feel bright and open with vaulted ceilings

Key facts

• Charming bay window
• New hvac
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• BRAND-NEW CARPET
• ENSUITE BATH
• PRIVATE PAVED PATIO
• CHARMING BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-456/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kissimmee Elementary School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Kissimmee Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,289 students, 59% FRL); Osceola High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,391 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,008/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 5248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $190k implies a 206% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,872
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-58,810
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34741

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$215 /mo · $2,582/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$334
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,057

Max offer price $183,290

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $16	+0% $-38	+5% $-92	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-197	-5% $-117	+0% $-38	+5% $41	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $10	base $-38	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2914 Rio Grande Trl Unit 2914 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,650	$1.32	9d	1	0.09mi
2351 Pine Brook Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,550	$1.75	0d	2	0.14mi
2807 Rio Grande Trl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,645	$1.32	0d	1	0.15mi
2807 Rio Grande Trl #2807 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,645	$1.32	16d	1	0.15mi
2213 San Vittorino Cir #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,600	$2.01	25d	1	0.31mi
2220 San Vittorino Cir #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	25d	1	0.32mi
2201 Cascades Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	926	$2,016	$2.18	0d	17	0.32mi
2109 Polo Club Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	971	$1,849	$1.90	0d	9	0.36mi
3831 Bowline Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,690	$1.76	25d	1	0.41mi
3831 Bowline Cir #204 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,450	$1.59	25d	1	0.41mi
3503 Bonaire Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	755	$1,801	$2.39	0d	15	0.42mi
2101 Vineyard Blvd Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,895	$2.34	0d	21	0.44mi
2455 Varenna Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1602	$2,550	$1.59	25d	1	0.44mi
3811 Bowline Cir Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,690	$1.76	25d	1	0.45mi
4021 Venetian Bay Dr #102 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,800	$1.22	23d	1	0.45mi
4008 San Gallo Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,995	$1.54	25d	1	0.47mi
4006 San Gallo Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.49mi
3802 Bay Club Cir #101 Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,600	$1.76	25d	1	0.50mi
4005 Santa Maria Dr #108 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	19d	1	0.52mi
3835 Nautical Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	910	$1,400	$1.54	25d	1	0.53mi
4013 Venetian Bay Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,700	$1.31	9d	1	0.53mi
4013 Venetian Bay Dr #107 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,300	$1.56	25d	1	0.53mi
4003 San Sabastian Dr #106 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.54mi
4005 Bismark Dr Kissimmee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,512	$2.55	0d	357	0.54mi
4002 San Gallo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.55mi
4011 Venetian Bay Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	6d	1	0.55mi
2791 Rapollo Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$2,900	$1.88	0d	1	0.57mi
2220 Barbados Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$1,850	$1.87	25d	1	0.57mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	25d	1	0.57mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr #108 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	21d	1	0.58mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr #108 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1470	$2,150	$1.46	0d	1	0.58mi
4005 Venetian Bay Dr Unit 1257496P Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.5	1463	$2,340	$1.60	0d	1	0.58mi
4007 Venetian Bay Dr #105 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	0d	1	0.58mi
2280 San Vital Dr #102 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,970	$1.34	12d	1	0.59mi
2280 San Vital Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$1,995	$1.36	12d	1	0.59mi
2290 San Vital Dr #104 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,800	$1.39	25d	1	0.59mi
2340 Avian Loop Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1841	$3,200	$1.74	25d	1	0.59mi
2250 San Vital Dr #107 Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	0d	1	0.60mi
2350 Rapollo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1841	$4,000	$2.17	25d	1	0.62mi
2112 Bahamas Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	991	$1,595	$1.61	6d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $334 · $4,008/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $190,000
3. 2026-03-09
   status Active
4. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-09
   price $199,900
6. 2026-01-14
   price $209,000
7. 2025-12-08
   price $229,000
8. 2025-10-23
   listed $239,000 Active
9. 1988-01-01
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,582 · $215/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,582 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,582
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − HOA: −$4,008
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$3,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$831
• After-tax cash flow: $376/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Kissimmee

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #2841

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kissimmee, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 196,187
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,716
• Household income: $52,409
• Rent vs Own: 67.1% rent · 32.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5248.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 20% White 16% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 4% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 66% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.96%
• Current HPI: 293.3914
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.43%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+206.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,582 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.