9205 Ridge Rd

Middleport, NY 14105

$35,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · Built 1880 · SingleFamily · Pending · 159 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,493/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $938/mo
• Annual: $11,254/yr
• Cap rate: 38.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.84%
• DSCR: 6.11
• 1% rule: 4.27%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $331 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#700 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Royalton-Hartland Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #362 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.