9205 Ridge Rd · Middleport, NY 14105

$35,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1880 0.31 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This property is a great project for investors. It needs a full rehab. Vacant. It is being sold "AS IS" CASH ONLY. Seller will supply Title search and Survey. All the utilities are shut down and the windows are boarded. Bring flashlights in order to see inside the house.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1880
• Listed 159 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#700 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Royalton-Hartland Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #362 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $331 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.84%
• DSCR: 6.11
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $57,206
• Equity at exit: $8,541

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.24×
• Total profit: $129,760
• Equity at exit: $9,048

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14105

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $938

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $962	-5% $950	+0% $938	+5% $926	+10% $914
Rent	-10% $820	-5% $879	+0% $938	+5% $997	+10% $1,056
Rate	-1.0pp $955	-0.5pp $947	base $938	+0.5pp $929	+1.0pp $920

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   price $35,000
3. 2025-11-12
   listed $50,000 Active
4. 2025-05-08
   price $27,500
5. 2025-04-14
   price $30,000
6. 2025-04-01
   listed $35,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $11,374
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,730
• After-tax cash flow: $8,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royalton-Hartland Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625140
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,582
• Composite: 43.8/100
• National rank: #2934
• State rank: #362 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middleport

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #700
• US rank: #13195

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,113

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 306.5418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-12 Listed $50,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $27,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-14 Price Changed $30,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-04-01 Listed $35,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,201 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.