229 235 Henard Rd

Rogersville, TN 37857

$152,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 644 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 430 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-286/mo
• Annual: $-3,432/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $42,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $152k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-286 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (36.3% below list).
• It's been on market 430 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.8% in Rogersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 430 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.