1809 Teton River Dr

Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$261,990D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 78 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,901/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$54
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-363/mo
• Annual: $-4,354/yr
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $73,357

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $262k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (27.4% below list).
• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $190k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.