1809 Teton River Dr · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$261,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · Land · 78 Days on market

Built 2026 5,227 sqft lot $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction by DR Horton. Barton Plan - This beautiful 2 story home offers an open layout with 3 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, 2 Car Garage. Energy efficient, and smart home features included. Call to schedule an appointment today!

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $262k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.5% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 478 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge Middle (math 52% / reading 47%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 213 students, 51% FRL); Blue Ridge H S (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 318 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,088 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.94%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.63×
• Total profit: $119,638
• Equity at exit: $236,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $370,611
• Equity at exit: $508,989

Cash invested: $73,357 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$327 /mo · $3,930/yr
• Insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,360

Max offer price $209,484

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-182	-5% $-272	+0% $-363	+5% $-453	+10% $-544
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-438	+0% $-363	+5% $-288	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-231	-0.5pp $-296	base $-363	+0.5pp $-431	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,498
• Closing costs: $7,860
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	14d	1	0.04mi
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	5d	1	0.04mi
1701 Teton River Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,895	$1.33	45d	1	0.11mi
1621 Fawn Creek Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1681	$1,975	$1.17	0d	5	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   price $261,990
3. 2026-01-25
   listed $286,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,676
• − Property taxes: −$3,930
• − Insurance: −$1,310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,622
• Taxable loss: −$9,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $261,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $286,990 NTREIS

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $177 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.