27 Hardenburg Rd

Pine Bush, NY 12566

$275,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-301/mo
• Annual: $-3,607/yr
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (27.7% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E J Russell Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 523 students, 42% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $275k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pine Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.