27 Hardenburg Rd · Pine Bush, NY 12566

$275,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1950 0.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming ranch-style home set on a beautiful piece of property with a nice yard--perfect for comfortable living! This inviting home features three bedrooms and one full bath, a bright and cheerful living room with a lovely bay window that fills the home with natural light, and a nice kitchen ready for everyday cooking and entertaining. Inside you'll find hardwood floors & carpeting, good closet space and the convenience of a washer/dryer. This is a wonderful opportunity to own a cozy, well-kept home with great curb appeal and just minutes from downtown shops and restaurants. Highest and best by 3/22 @5pm.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-301 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pine Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#480 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: E J Russell Elementary School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 523 students, 42% FRL); Crispell Middle School (math 17% / reading 46%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 633 students, 52% FRL); Pine Bush Senior High School (math 92% / reading 67%, grade A-, #518 of 1,100 statewide, top 51%, 1,615 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 29% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (8.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $275k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $198,791 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.68%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $94,899
• Equity at exit: $209,720

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.76×
• Total profit: $289,611
• Equity at exit: $417,052

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12566

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,772/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $221,900

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
85 Center St Unit A Pine Bush, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	13d	1	0.40mi
12 Edmunds Ln Pine Bush, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	14d	1	0.57mi
14 Edmunds Ln Pine Bush, NY	2.0	1.5	1120	$2,250	$2.01	14d	1	0.58mi
15 Kelly Ln Unit E Pine Bush, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	14d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 2026-03-13
   historical $275,000
4. 2018-08-08
   soldstatus $175,000
5. 2010-06-16
   soldstatus $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,772 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,210 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$438/yr (+$36/mo · 11.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$3,772
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$8,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,043
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623010
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $72,525
• Composite: 37.87/100
• National rank: #4324
• State rank: #468 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pine Bush

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #8470

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bush, NY
• Population (ZIP): 11,718

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.04%
• Current HPI: 329.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+223.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Coming Soon $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,772 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.