1810 E Blacklidge Dr #102

Tucson, AZ 85719

$98,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 639 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,069/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax + insurance: −$163
• HOA: −$306
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,669/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $27,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $98k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($95k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Amphitheater Unified District (4406) (suburban): math 32% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #85 of 249 in AZ (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frances Owen Holaway Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #687 of 1,109 statewide, top 65%, 311 students, 83% FRL); Amphitheater Middle School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #186 of 218 statewide, top 86%, 564 students, 89% FRL); Amphitheater High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 1,163 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 24% district-wide (60 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 36% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Amphitheater Unified District (4406) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?