9854 State Route 12

Copenhagen, NY 13626

$160,000C

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,753 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,453/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $145/mo
• Annual: $1,742/yr
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#914 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Copenhagen Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #197 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $160k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.