9854 State Route 12 · Copenhagen, NY 13626

$160,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,753 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Historic & amp; charming 4-5 bedroom home with many updates completed. The 1st floor of the home offers a large open kitchen with a breakfast area, large size bathroom, formal dining room, family room, living room with a gas fireplace & amp; a grand foyer/entrance way. Second floor offers 4-5 bedrooms with the possibility of a game room. The master bedroom has a master bath. The home has many of the original features such as the hardwood floors. the original wood work and original tin ceilings. The updates that have been already done include, new roof, electrical and plumbing, new windows & amp; new sheet rock.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Grand foyer
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• LARGE OPEN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• GRAND FOYER
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $145 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#914 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Copenhagen Central School District (rural): math 64% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #197 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $160k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $145,322 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.89%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $29,608
• Equity at exit: $73,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $91,020
• Equity at exit: $113,670

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13626

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,453 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $190	+0% $145	+5% $100	+10% $55
Rent	-10% $30	-5% $88	+0% $145	+5% $203	+10% $260
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $186	base $145	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $160,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $160,000 Active 622-char remark
16. 2015-07-25
    historical
17. 2014-07-25
    listed $159,000
18. 2008-08-18
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,935 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$769/yr (+$64/mo · 66.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,395
• − Management: −$1,395
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$935
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copenhagen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608280
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $53,499
• Composite: 53.91/100
• National rank: #1403
• State rank: #197 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copenhagen

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #17891

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copenhagen, NY
• Population (ZIP): 2,322

Population outlook (Lewis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,126 people
• By 2030: 25,354 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,359 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 20,927 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 15,533 · -40.5%
• By 2100: 10,215 · -60.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 6% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lewis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+8.7 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Current HPI: 303.3172
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+105.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $160,000 FSBO.com
• 2015-07-25 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2014-07-25 Listed $159,000 CNYIS
• 2008-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,166 · -55.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.