22102 Indian Creek Dr #1

Poinciana, FL 34759

$135,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 812 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,492/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$454
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $-208/mo
• Annual: $-2,497/yr
• Cap rate: 4.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.61%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-208 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (22.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $105k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1457 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?